Indo-Pakistani conflict: origins and consequences (23.00.06)

Harina Olga Aleksandrovna,

student of the Voronezh State University.

Scientific Director - Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor

Slinko A.A.

The history of the relationship between India and Pakistan is unique: the conflict that exists between these countries is one of the most durable in all new history and officially has as many years as the independent existence of India and Pakistan itself. The question of belonging to the controversial territories - Jammu and Kashmir is the cornerstone, on which all the political aspirations of Delhi and Islamabad came together in the region, but at the same time the roots of the problems go in ancient times, resting in essence in interreligious and, partly, ethnic moat.

Islam began to penetrate the territory of India in the VIII century, and the close interaction of the Hindu and Muslim cultures began from the turn of the XII - XIII centuries, when the first states led by Muslim Sultans and military leaders arose in Northern India.

Islam and Hinduism are not only different religions, but also alien lifestyles. The contradictions between them are irresistible, and history shows that they were not overcome, and the confessional principle was one of the most effective tools of British colonial governance conducted in accordance with the well-known Rule "divide and conquer". For example, elections to the legislative bodies of India were conducted in the Kuria, educated depending on the confessional affiliation, which undoubtedly heated contradictions.

The submission of the independence of British India on the night from 14 to 15, 1947 and the section of the countries were accompanied by monstrous clashes on religious and ethnic soils. The number of those killed in a few weeks reached a few hundred thousand people, and the number of refugees amounted to 15 million.

The problem of the relationship between the two main communities in India during the period of independence has two aspects: relations within the country and international relations with neighboring Pakistan, which is expressed in the Kashmir issue, which is so seriously affected by the atmosphere within the states, that even the Indian population in Pakistan and the Muslim population in India is as if agents of hostile powers.

Back in the period of conquering Muslims of India only his northern and central part were the power of the Muslim rulers of Kashmir, as applies to the south (province of Jammu), then the domination of princes-Hindus from the nationality of Dogra . The eastern, hard-to-reach part of the modern Kashmir - Ladakh Province - only nominally recognized the domination of Sultanov Kashmir. Local princes retained Buddhism and supported active trade relations with Tibet. It is during this period that ethnic, cultural and religious differences are formed between the provinces of Kashmir, serving still the main source of tension in the region.

The British put the Hindu rulers over the Muslim population and at the beginning of the XX century. In Kashmir against Muslims, a number of discriminatory laws were adopted, which reduced them to the position of the "second grade" people .

In 1932, Sheikh Abdullah founded the first political party of Kashmir - the Muslim conference, which since 1939 began to be called the National Conference of Jammu and Kashmir.

At the time of the section of British India muslims in Kashmir made up about 80% of the population and, it seemed, his fate was predetermined: he had to become a province of Pakistan, but, according to the provisions of the law, the joining of the principality to India and Pakistan depended solely on the will of its ruler. Ruler Jammu and Kashmir - Hari Singhait was a hindu.

Already in October 1947, a dispute about the future Kashmir converts to a direct armed conflict between India and Pakistan.

The situation was complicated when the Pakistani government provoked a speech against the Principality of Kashmir Border Pashtun tribes, which were later supported by the regular troops of Pakistan.

October 24 on the territory engaged in Pashtuns was proclaimed the creation of sovereign formation of Azad Kashmir And his entry into Pakistan. Hari Singha stated that Kashmir adjoins India and asked for help to Delhi. Military assistance was hastily sent to Kashmir, and the Indian troops quickly managed to stop the aggressor.

On October 28 - December 22, negotiations were held between the warring parties. However, military actions were never suspended, regular military units of Pakistan were involved in them, which gave war under test for one year.

Indian troops tried to take Azad Kashmir, but in May 1948, the Pakistani army crossed the border and took the whole northern part of Kashmir by August. A greater pressure of India's troops on Pashtun detachments led to the fact that when UN mediation on January 1, 1949, combat operations were discontinued. On July 27, 1949, India and Pakistan signed an agreement on the cease-fire line, and Kashmir turned out to be divided into two parts. Several resolutions onN Called the parties to the execution of plebiscite, however, nor India nor Pakistan wished it to do.Soon, Azad Kashmir actually entered Pakistan and the government was formed there, although, of course, India does not recognize this and in all Indian maps this territory is depicted Indian. The events of that time entered the story as the first Kashmir War 1947 - 1949.

In 1956, after the adoption of a law on new administrative division of the country, India provided its Kashmir possessions a new status: the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The cease-fire line has become a border. Changes also occurred in Pakistan. Most of the northern Kashmir lands received the name of the Agency of the Northern Territories, and Azad Kashmir formally became independent.

In August-September 1965, a second armed conflict between India and Pakistan occurred. Formally, the 1965 conflict began due to the uncertainty of the frontier line in the Kachskiy Ranan area in the southern section of the joint border of India and Pakistan, but soon the flame of the war spread to the north, to Kashmir.

The war did not end in anything - as soon as the monsoon rains began, the Kachsky Rann became unsuitable for the movement of armored vehicles, the fights subsided by themselves, and during the mediation of the UK on September 23, 1965, a cease-fire was reached.

The results of the second Indo-Pakistani war were the damage of more than $ 200 million, the number of previous 700 people and no territorial changes.

From January 4 to January 11, 1966, the President of Pakistan Ayub-Khan and Prime Minister of India Shast, with the participation of the Chairman of the USSR Council of Ministers, Alexey Kosygin, took place in Tashkent. On January 10, 1966, representatives of the parties signed the Tashkent Declaration . The leaders of the two countries declared a firm determination to restore normal and peaceful relations between India and Pakistan and promote mutual understanding and friendly relations between their peoples.

The 1971 war included civil rebellion, mutual terrorism and large-scale hostilities. While West Pakistan considered this war as the betrayal of Eastern Pakistan, the Bengali saw her liberation from the repressive and brutal political system.

In December 1970, the Avami Lig Party, who spent the equality of both parts of the country, won the elections in East Pakistan. But the government of Pakistan refused to transfer the power of Avmi Leagi and provide the area internal autonomy. The punitive operations of the Pakistani army led to the fact that more than 7 million people fled to neighboring India.

In parallel in 1970, the Government of India raised the release of the "illegally occupyable" Pakistan territory of the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan was also customized categorically and ready for military methods to solve a Kashmir issue.

The current situation in East Pakistan provided the magnificent opportunity of India to weaken the position of Pakistan and begin preparations for the next war. At the same time, India appealed to the UN for providing her assistance in refugees from Pakistan, because their influx was too large.

Then, in order to secure his rear, on August 9, 1971, the Indian government signed a peace agreement, friendship and cooperation with the USSR, which stipulates the strategic partnership. After the establishment of international contacts, India lacked only the slightest moments for the beginning of the war, and she took up the training and preparation of Mukh Bakhini, which in the future played not the last role in the war.

Formally, in the third Indo-Pakistani war, 2 stages can be distinguished. The first is the pre-war, when the fighting between the states was conducted, but there was no official announcement of the war (in the fall of 1971). And the second is directly military when the war was officially announced Pakistan (December 13-17, 1971).

By the fall of 1971, the Pakistani army managed to take control of the main strategic clauses of the eastern part of the country, but Easternopakan troops, acting from the territory of India, together with Mukhi Bakhini, caused significant damage to government troops.

On November 21, 1971, the Army of India from supporting partisans moved to direct combat actions. In early December, part of the Indian army approached the capital of Eastern Bengal - the city of Dhaka, which fell on December 6th.

When the crisis on the subcontinent entered the phase of the armed conflict both in the East and in the West, the UN Secretary General, K.Valdheim, presented reports on the position of the cease-fire line in Kashmir, based on the information of the main military observer. On December 7, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution , whereby India and Pakistan "take measures to immediately cease fire and removal of troops on their own direction of borders."

On December 3, 1971, Pakistan officially announced India to War, which was accompanied by the simultaneous strike of the Pakistani Air Force, and Pakistan's land and land forces were also passed. However, after four days, Pakistan realized that the war was in the east. In addition, the Indian Air Force inflicted a tangible blow to the eastern provinces of Western Pakistan. Further resistance in Eastern Bengal lost its meaning: East Pakistan has almost completely outlived from under the control of Islamabad, and military actions completely relaxed.

On December 16, 1971, Pakistani General Niyazi signed an act of unconditional surrender to the Indian Army and Mukhi Bakhini. The next day, the Prime Minister of India Indira Gandhi and President Pakistan Zulfikar Ali Bhutto signed an agreement on the cease-fire in Kashmir. The third Indo-Pakistani war ended in a complete defeat of Karachi and the victory of India and Eastern Bengal.

The results of the war showed a serious weakness of Pakistan, because he completely deprived his Eastern half: the main and global change in the post-war situation was the formation on the world map of the new state - the People's Republic of Bangladesh.

At the time of completion of hostilities, Pakistan occupied approximately 50 square miles in the Chamb sector, controlling the Communications of the city of Jammu and Kashmir, as well as the sections of Indian territory in Punjab. India captured about 50 Pakistani posts to the north and west of the cease-fire line and a number of sections of Pakistani territory in Punjab and Cinda. On December 21, 1971, the Security Council adopted resolution 307 in which I demanded that "so that the solid cessation of fire and the termination of all hostilities in all regions of the conflict is strictly observed and remained in force to the output."

On June 28 - July 3, 1972, negotiations between the Prime Minister of the Gandhi and President Zulfir Ali Bhutto were held in the city of Siml. In the agreement signed by the parties, the prospects for relations between Pakistan and India were determined. The "determination" of the governments of the two countries to put an end to conflicts was recorded.

The process of demarcation of the line of control in Jammu and Kashmir and mutual removal of troops ended in December 1972. Diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan were restored in May 1976.

However, the terrorist attack in Delhi led to the next exacerbation of relations, expressed in resuming shootout on the control line. Tensions also increased in connection with the approval of Pakistan in August 1974 by the new Constitution of Azad Kashmir and the transfer in September to the administrative subordination of the Pakistani federal authorities of the districts of Gilgita, Baltistan and Hunza.

The Indian government at the beginning of 1975 entered into an agreement with Sheikh Abdullah, according to which he recognized the final accession to Kashmir to India with Delhi's autonomous rights guaranteed.

But as practice has shown, despite the steps towards each other, each side was confident in its rightness, and the Siml agreement was interpreted and interpreted by India and Pakistan in its own way. Next, the already familiar scenario has developed: a tour of restoration and replenishment, equipping with more high-tech weapons and a new splash of conflict.

From the mid-80s, for several years, the army of the sides were drawn almost daily into aviation or artillery duels on the northern tip of the border with China - the belonging of the alpine glacier was chained in the foothills of the Karakorum.

The reason for the start of hostilities in Siachen was the information about the soon arrival in Pakistan of the Japanese group, which planned in 1984 to climb the Roman Peak, which is most important in terms of control over the entire glacier area. The Japanese was to accompany the group of Pakistani military, which was extremely not liked Delhi, and he accused Pakistan in an attempt to establish control over Siagian. Both India and Pakistan, by the time they planned to conduct an operation to master the glacier.

However, the Indian military began the onset of the first. On April 13, 1983, the implementation of the "Meghant" operation began. Pakistan parts approached only in a month and a half, turned out to be in a number of collisions are not able to knock out Indians with the positions captured by them. However, they did not allow the Indian parts to advance further.

The high degree of tension was maintained in the Siachana area until the mid-90s, and 1987 - 1988 were the time of the most cruel clashes.

Military clashes near the glacier happen today. The last major battles with the involvement of artillery occurred on 4 September 1999 and December 3, 2001.

Since 1990, a new exacerbation of the "Muslim issue" began, which was associated with the struggle of the Party of the Indian People (BDP) for power. The target for the excitement of the universal protest was a mosque, built back in 1528 on the site of the destroyed Hindu temple in honor of the god frame. L.K. Advani, the leader of the BDP, organized mass marches to the "Place of Birth of the Rama", and he himself went to the chariot, uttering slogans, which later spread throughout India: "When the Hindus are understood, Mullah run from the country", "Muslims two ways to Pakistan or at the cemetery". It provoked unrest throughout India.

On December 6, 1992, the mosque was destroyed, and in response to this, the clashes and pogroms of Muslims began in many cities. In total, in the late 1992 year - the beginning of 1993 killed 2,000 people. And in March 1993, a series of explosions organized by Muslim terrorists thundered in Bombay. In 1996 - 1997, Muslims arranged about hundreds of explosions throughout India.

At the same time, the situation in Jammu and Kashmir aggravated with these events. due to the sharp escalation of subversive gang of separatists. As a result, almost continuous bouts with terrorists and sabotagers, India has lost more than 30 thousand servicemen and civilians.

After in May 1998, both states demonstrated the presence of nuclear weapons, many analysts on both sides of the border spoke about the possible nuclear war between them. Nevertheless, in the late 1998 - early 1999, a noticeable "discharge" of tensions in India with Pakistan has occurred. There was an exchange of visits, and several summit meetings took place. The culmination of "thaw" was a trip to the Pakistani city of Lahore Prime Minister India A. B. Vajpai by bus in connection with the opening of the Delhi bus route - Lahore in February 1999 and achieving a package of agreements at the highest level on a mutual reduction of tension.

The beginning of the 2000s was characterized by severe terrorist attacks of Pakistani militants both in Jammu and Kashmir, and in individual cities of India and Delhi.

All efforts on the "discharge" of the situation, undertaken in early 1999, failed when an unprecedented tension in Kashmir began in May. About a thousand militants who penetrated from Pakistan, overcame the control line in five sectors. They were covered by Pakistani artillery, which led fire through the line of control. The fire of Pakistani batteries greatly prevented the promotion of the columns of Indian cars, carrying reinforcements and ammunition.

India, gradually throwing all new parts into battle, by the end of May, the number of troops up to ten brigades of the land forces. The main battles took place in the Kargil sectors, Dras, Batolik and Turkish and Musko Valley. These events were called "Kargil's conflict". And the operation on the chopping heights was called "Vijay".

India was ready to distribute hostilities for adjacent territories to remove the tension in the Kargyl area, but then abstained from the intersection of an internationally recognized border in Punjab, where Pakistani troops were concentrated. In general, the actions of the Indian Armed Forces did not go beyond the control line.

Islamabad denied his involvement in Kargilsky clashes, arguing that it is only moral support for "freedom fighters". Soon, direct evidence of the participation of Pakistanis in military clashes was obtained - several militants who had relevant documents were captured to the Indians.

By mid-June, the Indians managed to beat off most of the heights, but the bandforms finally left the Indian territory only after July 12, N. Sharifa recognized that they were controlled from Pakistan and sanctioned their departure.

After the Kargil collision, there were periods of reducing tension. But, as the subsequent events showed, the potential of hostility, accumulated in the relations of India and Pakistan, did not even give the opportunity to root even so much success: on the control line resumed a shootout between regular parts of both countries, subsided after the end of the Kargilsky crisis.

Currently, the border between the Indian and Pakistani parts of Kashmir passes through the control line recorded by the parties in the Siml Agreement. However, collisions on religious soil and in the territorial plan are still taking place. The conflict cannot be called exhausted. Moreover, it can be argued that the threat of a new war is not excluded. The situation is aggravated by the fact that new players, in particular, USA, Afghanistan and China are being implemented under the conflict under the pretext of maintaining peace.

The current conflict state is also characterized by the fact that India and Pakistan persecute and economic interests associated with significant water and recreational resources of Kashmir.

While the Kashmir problem remains unresolved, mutual distrust continues between India and Pakistan, and this stimulates both parties to strengthen its defense capability and the development of nuclear programs. The peaceful decision of the Kashmir problem on a bilateral basis can prevent the spread of nuclear weapons throughout the South Asian region.

Analysis of this problem currently suggests that specific proposals that take into account the interests of all three sides have not yet been developed. Both India and Pakistan actually recognize the existing realities - two kashmir, the state device, the presence of a third force, the unwillingness to recognize each other's decisions, the peaceful way to solve the problem, the futility of military methods for finding consensus.

Literature

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2. Belokrenitsky V.Ya. Interstate conflicts and regional security in South Asia: studies. allowance for universities / V. Ya. Belokrenitsky; East / West: Regional subsystems and regional problems of international relations: MGIMO (y) of the Russian Foreign Ministry. - M.: Rossman, 2002. - 428 p.

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4.Sotossensky A.D. Conflicts in the East: ethnic and confessional: Tutorial for university students / ed. A. D. Voskresensky. - M.: Aspect Press, 2008. - 512 p.

5.Gordenko A.N. Wars of the second half of the XX century / A.N. Gordienko - Minsk: Literature, 1998. - 544 p. (Encyclopedia of Military Art).

6. Sreet of the UN General Assembly A / RES / 2793 (XXVI) dated December 7 1971.

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The relations of India and Pakistan - two nuclear powers of South Asia - are heated in connection with the riots in the settlement mainly by the Muslims of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir. The head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of India Rajnatch Singh, speaking at hearings in parliament, accused Islamabad in an attempt to destabilize and support terrorism in the border state. The statement of the Indian Silovik sounded after the Pakistan Ambassador to the UN Maliha Lodok called the UN Security Council to put pressure on the Indian government for the "termination of repression". The new aggravation of the "the oldest conflict on the UN agenda", as a result of which over the past two weeks 45 people were killed and more than three thousand injured, began after the Indian security forces eliminated the Hizb-Ul-Mujahidin grouping activist, which seeking Kashmir branch from India.

The hearing on the Kashmir problem, held in Lok-Sabhe (Lower Chamber of the Indian Parliament), were held after Last week, Jammu and Kashmir, in connection with the escalation of tension, visited the head of the General Staff of the Indian Army Dalbir Singh Sukhag. Following the visit, he presented a report on the situation in the region of the head of the Ministry of Defense Manoharu Parrikar.

The last resonant incident in Jammu and Kashmir occurred in Kazigund. Indian soldiers opened fire on the crowd, throwing them with stones, as a result of which three people died. In general, the number of victims of the new exacerbation in Jammu and Kashmir - the most large-scale over the past six years, despite the commandant hour introduced in a number of district, over the past two weeks amounted to 45 people (more than 3 thousand were injured by varying severity).

The riots broke out after July 8, the security forces during the special operation was eliminated by the 22-year-old Burkhan Vanya - one of the leaders of the Hizb-Ul-Mujahidin group, which struggle to the Jammma and Kashmir department from India and recognized in the country terrorist. Burkhan Vanya was killed in a shootout with Indian soldiers along with two other activists of the organization.

Indian authorities are convinced: the exacerbation of the situation in Kashmir is Islamabad. "Instead of solving your internal problems, Pakistan is trying to destabilize India," the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of India Rajnath Singh, who called the neighboring state of the sponsor of terrorism, warned on hearings in parliament. The Indian minister recalled that the authorities of Pakistan called Burkhan Vani "Martyr" and announced after his death of National Mourning.

The statement of the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of India continued the war of the words between the two nuclear powers of Asia and long-standing antagonists, for which the divided Kashmir remains the main apple of discord from the moment of their foundation. This makes the Kashmir problem "the oldest conflict on the UN agenda."

Of the three Indo-Pakistani wars, Kashmir was the cause of two - in 1947 and 1965. The first war broke out immediately after the two countries have gained independence as a result of the division of British India to India and Pakistan. Then Pakistan managed to occupy a third of Kashmir. Another part is 38 thousand square meters. The KM of the Axai Chin district after the military invasion of 1962 occupied China. As a result, Kashmir turned out to be divided immediately between the three leading powers of Asia, and the Kashmir problem began to affect almost 3 billion people.

The statement of the Indian security forces on hearings in parliament was sought after the Ambassador of Pakistan to the UN Malikha Lodoka called on the UN Security Council to put pressure on the Indian government for the "termination of repression". And a few days before that, Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif poured oil into the fire of a diplomatic conflict, calling Burkhan Vani "soldier who fought for independence." At the same time, he promised that Islamabad would continue to provide all sorts of support to the branches of Burkhan Vanya.

In connection with the last escalation in Kashmir in Islamabad, all the more militant statements sound: the critics of the premiere of Sharif accuse him in insufficient hardness. Recall that after coming to power in India, the new premiere of Narendra Mod Mo in May 2014, a good personal relationship was established between the two leaders. Mr. Moda made an unexpected gesture, inviting the head of the neighboring state to his inauguration. After that, in both capitals they spoke about the Indo-Pakistani reboot. However, the latest events in Kashmir are threatened to cross the developments of recent years and return the two nuclear states of South Asia in the era of the former confrontation.

"By nameing the normalization of relations with Pakistan one of its priorities and making a bet on personal contacts with Nawazu Sharif, the premier of Modi, at the same time, explicitly underestimated the conflict potential of the Kashmir problem, capable of time from time to time, beyond the will of the leaders of two states. Apparently, this happens today "," Explained to "Kommersant" director of the Center for Indian Research Tatyana Shaumyan. According to the expert, the return of this problem to the list of regional conflicts is threatened with the Asian region with a new destabilization with the participation of three states: India, Pakistan and China, and not sharing Kashmir.

British India Independence Act and State Sewing in South Asia

The national liberation movement in the Indian cities and rural areas has been launched. Anti-British performances began among the Indian soldiers of the British-Indian army. The Indian part of the officer corps, not to mention the rank of composition, lost loyalty to the British crown. In an effort to ahead of events, on August 15, 1947, the British Parliament adopted the Independence Act.

The British government in accordance with the plan developed by the latest vice-king of India by Lord Louis Mountbetten, divided the country in 1947 by the country for a religious principle. Instead of a single state, two Dominion was created - Pakistan, to which the territories inhabited mainly by Muslims and the Indian Union (India itself), where the majority of the population were Hindus. At the same time, the territory of India's actual wedge cut Pakistan into two parts - West Pakistan (Sovr. Pakistan) and East Pakistan (Sovr. Bangladesh), which were divided 1600 km and are inhabited by various nations (Bengali - in the East, Punjabs, Sindhi, Pashtun and Beluhga - in the West). At the same time, according to the religious principle, even the whole people were divided - Bengali: Islam's professing it was part of the Eastern Pakistan, and Bengali-Hindus accounted for the population of the Indian state of Bengal. East Pakistan was surrounded by Indian territory from three sides, with the fourth - his border was held on the waters of the Bengal Bay. The section was accompanied exclusively to the bloody relocation of millions of Hindus and Sikhs to India, and Muslims in Pakistan. Died, according to different estimates, from half a million to a million people.
To the content of the chapter

First Indian-Pakistani War

Additional tensions in the situation made the provision of "native" principalities of the right to independently decide on the entry into the Indian or Pakistani state. Taking advantage of them, Navab, the largest princess Hyderabad in the center of India, decided to join Pakistan. Indian government, not wanting the loss of this territory, in 1948 introduced his troops to the principality, ignoring the Protests of Great Britain and the USA

Similarly, the ruler of Kashmir, inhabited mainly by Muslims and bordering Western Pakistan, being a religious hinduer, declared its intention to attach his own ownership to India or become an independent state truck. Then in October 1947, Pashtunsky tribes were invaded from Pachistan territory, who wanted to prevent the transition of this mainly Muslim territory under the sovereignty of India. The ruler of Kashmir appealed for military assistance to Delhi and hurried to officially proclaim the joining of the principality to the Indian Union. (|)

By 1948, the conflict in Kashmir is converted to the first Indian-Pakistani war. She was short, and in January 1949, an agreement on the cease-fire was signed between the parties. Thanks to the Intermediary Commission of the UN Security Council in the summer of 1949, the cease-fire line was established, one part of which was recognized as an international border, and the other was the line of actual control (somewhat changed later as a result of the second and third Indian-Pakistani wars 1965 and 1971 .). North-West Kashmir was under the control of Pakistan (subsequently, the formation of "Azad Kashmir" (free Kashmir) was created there), formally representing a free territory.

Two thirds of the former Principality Kashmir moved under the power of India. These Kashmir lands were combined with neighboring areas in settlements, and amounted to Indian state Jammu and Kashmir. The Security Council in 1949 adopted a resolution on the holding of plebiscite in Kashmir after the withdrawal of Pakistani troops from its northwestern part. But Pakistan refused to fulfill the UN demand, and the plebiscite was ripped. Pakistan received an exit to the border with China due to control over the North-West Kashmir, through which in the 70s and 1980s the Strategic Karakorum Highway was laid, providing Pakistan a reliable connection with the PRC.

Indian-Pakistani conflict due to Kashmir was not resolved. The events of the end of the 40s identified the basic antiinda orientation of Pakistan's foreign policy. Pakistani leadership since then began to consider India as a source of threat to Pakistan's independence.

At the same time, in the very state of Jammu and Kashmir, there were separatist sentiments in India, which came against entry into Pakistan or India and demanded the creation of an independent Kashmir state. In addition to all the eastern part of the state historically to the XI century. It was part of Tibet, and its population is still tie to tibetan connections. In this regard, the KNR leadership of the PRC began to be interested in the Kashmir problem, which spreads its control to Tibet after the victory of the Chinese Revolution in 1949, especially since there was no clarity in the question of the line of passage between the Tibetan lands of the PRC and Indian possessions in Jammu and Kashmir - In particular, in the area of \u200b\u200bPlateau Aksachin, which was held strategically important for China the road from Western Tibet to Xinjiang. In South Asia, a focus of chronic tension arose.
DIP RELATIONS WITH USA AND USSR
India's diplomatic relations with the United States and the USSR were established before the proclamation of its independence, since the status of Dominion allowed to do so. But neither of Moscow, nor Washington has a close relationship in India. The superpowers were absorbed in cases in more important regions for them - in Europe, East Asia, in the Middle East. This in its own unusual and short "vacuum of interest" in India partly contributed to the formation of a specific foreign policy line Delhi, whose authorship belongs to the chapter of the first government of independent India Javaharlalu Nehru.
The deterioration of Soviet-Chinese relations in the early 60s led to the growth of Moscow's interest in military-political cooperation with India, whose relationship with the PRC after two conflicts remains tense for the previous ten years. The USSR provided India a significant economic assistance and began to develop military communications with it. In the first half of the 60s, the scale of the military supplies of the Soviet Union exceeded the amount of assistance in India from the United States. It became disturbed by Washington. The J. Kennedy administration put the goal of strengthening relations with India, despite the commitment to Delhi Non-Aligned and Neutralism. India The American president called the key to Asia, believing that it would be able to become a "showcase" of the West in American help, to win an economic competition with China and become a powerful counterweight. After the Chinese-Indian conflict, India became the largest recipient of American economic assistance, although in Washington I was annoyed about the unwillingness of India more actively cooperate with the United States against China.

Fearing to deceive in the calculations for the transformation of India in a reliable partner, the US administration began to pay attention to cooperation with Pakistan. After the "July Revolution" of 1958 in Iraq and his release in 1959 from the Baghdad Covenant, the value of Pakistan for the American Strategy in the Middle East has increased so that in March 1959 the United States concluded an agreement with Pakistan, which provided for the use of the US Armed Forces In case of aggression against Pakistan. Since 1965, Pakistan began to receive modern weapons from the United States.

But the development of US-Pakistani ties was not fragile. The United States understood that the confrontation with India defines the interest of the Pakistani government in cooperation with the PRC on an antiindian basis. The perspective of the Sino-Pakistani bloc did not suit Washington.

But this unit was undesirable for Moscow. That is why, focusing on rapprochement with India, the Soviet Union sought to keep good relations with Pakistan. The task of Soviet diplomacy was the limitation of Pakistano-Chinese and American-Pakistani rapprochement. Soviet-Pakistani dialogue successfully developed.

Indian-Pakistani relations in the first half of the 60s were tense. Visit of the Prime Minister of India J.Neru in Karachi in 1960 and six-month bilateral negotiations on the Kashmir Question in 1962-1963. And in the first half of 1964, did not lead to the improvement of the situation. Since the end of 1964, armed clashes at the Indo-Pakistani border began. In the summer of 1965, they turned into a full-scale war.

The development of events caused the concern of the USSR and the United States, which feared the strengthening of China's position in South Asia. The United States, Lavi- (|) Rui between India and Pakistan, suspended military assistance as early as the beginning of hostilities, at the same time speaking with a warning of China from intervention in Indo-Pakistani conflict.

Moscow was in position, convenient to fulfill the intermediary mission: she had friendly relationships and India and Pakistan. Governments of both countries agreed to adopt Soviet mediation. The United States also did not oppose him. Indian Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastra and Pakistan President Mohammed Ayub-Khan arrived in the USSR. In January 1966, Indo-Pakistani negotiations took place in Tashkent, with the participation of the Chairman of the USSR Council of Ministers, which ended with the signing of the Joint Declaration of India and Pakistan on the termination of the war and restore the status quo. It was formally believed that during the negotiations, the Soviet Union provided the "good services" conflicting parties, but in fact the Mission of the USSR, rather, resembled "mediation", since the Soviet delegate directly participated in the negotiations, which in principle is not provided for by the procedure for the provision of "good services".

The United States during the conflict occupied a neutral position. In Pakistan, it was refresan to this, believing that Washington was supposed to support him more vigorously. In part "In the peak" of the United States in October 1967, Pakistan President M. Yayub-Khan made a visit to Moscow, during which he hinted at the desire of Pakistan to weaken the dependence on the United States in the military-political field. In early 1968, Pakistan's authorities announced their disinterest in the extension of the agreement that allowed the United States to use radar installations in Peshawar to collect information about the military facilities of the USSR. During the visit, A.N. Koshigina to Pakistan in April 1968, the USSR agreed to the supply of weapons to Pakistan. This caused indignation of India. Trying to keep good relations with India, and with Pakistan, Moscow as a whole was inclined to remain on the side of Delhi.

Education Bangladesh and Indo-Pakistani War

At the periphery of international relations, confrontation elements were noticeable than in Europe. This was confirmed by the development of events in South Asia. By the beginning of the 70s, in the Soviet Union, they were finally established in the opinion, according to which India is a reliable partner of the USSR in the East, since Soviet-Chinese relations were extremely strained, and the relations of the PRC and India are also very cold. True, India did not want to be drawn into the Soviet-Chinese confrontation. But she did not trust China, especially since he saw the desire of the new US administration go for rapprochement with him. India lost the position of the US priority partner in the region, as it was in the 60s. (|) In Delhi, they knew that the "historical opponent" of India, Pakistan, is trying to promote the improvement of US-Chinese relations to devalue for Washington cooperation with India. Finally, Indian politicians believed that there is such a negative factor as "Personal Nelyubov R. Nikison to India" and "Antiinda Pokal" his adviser on national security issues of Cissyrger. In the early 70s, the existing American-Indian mutual understanding was disappeared.

True, the situation in the region developed rapidly independently of the sentiments in Delhi. After the section of British India, the Pakistan state was consisting of two parts - Western and Eastern, who did not come into contact with each other and were divided by the Wedge of India. The capital of Pakistan was located in the West, and the eastern part felt abandoned and provincial. Her residents believed that the central government does not pay attention to the problems of Eastern Pakistan and discriminates it in funding issues, although half of the country lived in the eastern part of the country.

At the parliamentary elections of 1970 in Pakistan, the most votes were received by the East Bengali Party Avami Leag. Thus, theoretically, its leader - Mudzhibre Rahman, who advocated the provision of autonomy to Eastern Pakistan, was the right to lead the central government. But by order of the head of the Military Administration of Pakistan (Dictator), General A.M.Yyia-Khan, who came to power in 1969, in March 1971 M. Heman was arrested. The Army units were sent to East Pakistan from the Western.
etc.................

Islamabad and Delhi are ready at any time to arrange a nuclear slaughter. We continue to analyze modern conflict situations in the world that can lead to major wars. Today we will talk about more than 60-year-old Indo-Pakistani confrontation, which in the 21st century aggravated by the fact that both states have developed (or received from their patrons) nuclear weapons and actively increase their military power.

Threat for all

Indo-Pakistani military conflict occupies, perhaps, the most ignorant place in the list of modern threats to mankind. According to an employee of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Alexandra Shilina, "a special explosion of the confrontation of these two states acquired, when India, and Pakistan, spending a series of nuclear tests, demonstrated their ability to create nuclear weapons. Thus, the South Asian Military confrontation has become the second in the whole world history in the center of nuclear deterrence (after the Cold War between the USSR and the USA). "

This is aggravated by the fact that neither India nor Pakistan signed an agreement on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and continue to refrain from joining it. They consider this contract discriminatory, that is, by establishing the right to possess nuclear weapons after a small group of "privileged" countries and cut off all other states from the right to ensure their own security by all available means. Accurate data on nuclear capabilities of the Armed Forces of India and Pakistan in open printing is not published.

According to some estimates, both states set themselves the goal (and maybe already reached it) to bring the number of nuclear ammunition from 80 to 200 on each side. In the case of their application, this is enough so that the ecological catastrophe questiones the survival of all mankind. The reasons for the conflict and the fierce, with which it develops, indicates that such a threat is quite real.

Conflict history

As you know, India and Pakistan have been part of the English colony of India until 1947. The United Kingdom in the 18th century by fire and the sword took the feudal principalitys here under their wing. Inhabited their numerous peoples who could approximately be divided into actually indigenous inhabitants of the country and Muslims - descendants of India in the XII-XIII centuries of Persians. All these nations relatively peacefully got along with each other.

Nevertheless, the Indians focused mainly in the territory of the current India, and Muslims are in the present Pakistan. On the lands that are now owned by Bangladesh, the population was mixed. In a large part, it consisted of Bengalov - Hindus to Islam.

Britain made troubles in relatively peaceful life tribes. Following the old and proven principle of "divide and conquer", the British conducted a policy of separation of the population on a religious basis. Nevertheless, the national liberation struggle has led here after World War II to the formation of independent states. North-West Punjab, Sind, North-West Province, Belukhistan moved to Pakistan. It was undoubtedly because these land were inhabited by Muslims.

A separate area was part of the previously divided Bengal - East Bengal or East Pakistan. This enclave could communicate with the rest of Pakistan only through the territory of India or by sea, but for this it was necessary to overcome more than three thousand miles. Such a separation has already laid the focus of tensions between the two countries, but the main problem is the situation with the principality of Jammu and Kashmir.

In the Kashmir Valley, 9 people from ten confessed Islam. At the same time, historically developed so that the entire ruling tip consisted of Indians who, naturally, wanted to incorporate the principality in India. Naturally, Muslims did not agree with such a prospect. Efiltration of groups of armed pulshuns began in Kashmir, and infiltration of groups of armed Pashtuns began with the territory of Pakistan. On October 25, they entered the capital of the Principality of Srinagar. Two days later, the Indian parts returned Srinagar and discarded the rebels from the city. The Government of Pakistan also introduced regular troops into battle. Simultaneously in both countries, repression against the innerians took place. So the first Indo-Pakistani war began.

In bloody battles, artillery was widely used, armored units and aviation participated. By the summer of 1948, the Pakistani army occupied the northern part of Kashmir. On August 13, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution on the cease-fire by both parties, but only on July 27, 1949, Pakistan and India signed a truce. Kashmir turned out to be divided into two parts. For this, the other parties paid a terrible price - more than a million killed and 17 million refugees.

On May 17, 1965, the 1949 truce was violated, as many historians consider India: the Indian infantry battalion crossed the ceasefire line in Kashmir and the battle took several Pakistani bouncer. On September 1, regular parts of the Pakistani and Indian armies in Kashmir entered combat contact. The Pakistani Air Force began to strike on major cities and industrial centers of India. Both countries have actively carried out the abandonment of airborne troops.

It is not known how it all ended, if it were not for the strongest diplomatic press, which forced Delhi to stop the war. The Soviet Union is the longtime and traditional ally of India, was annoyed by this military adventure Delhi. In the Kremlin, not without reason was afraid that China on the side of the Allied Pakistan can be joined in the war. This happens like this, the United States would support India; Then the USSR would be dropped into the background, and his influence in the region would be undermined.

At the request of Alexei Koshygin, the then President of Egypt Nasser personally flew to Delhi and criticized the Indian government for violating the cease-fire agreement. On September 17, the Soviet government invited both parties to meet in Tashkent and resolve the conflict to a peaceful way. On January 4, 1966, Indo-Pakistani negotiations began in the Uzbek capital. After a long dispute, on January 10, it was decided to take troops to the pre-war border and restore the status quo.

Neither India nor Pakistan was pleased with the "survival": each party considered his victory stolen. Indian generals stated that if the USSR did not intervene, they would have been sitting in Islamabad for a long time. And their Pakistani colleagues argued that they were still a week, they would block the Hindus in the southern Kashmir and made a tank throw on Delhi. Soon, those and others have an opportunity to be measured by the forces.

It began with the fact that on November 12, 1970, Typhoon, who took about three hundred and thousands of lives, swept over Bengalia. Holding destruction has further worsened the life level of benglets. In his distressed position, they accused Pakistani authorities and demanded autonomy. Islamabad instead of help sent troops there. It did not begin the war, but a slaughter: the first broken beagles were given tanks, grabbed on the streets and brought to the lake in the vicinity of Chittagong, where tens of thousands of people were shot from machine guns, and their bodies were drowning in the lake. Now it is a lake called the lake of the rebels. Mass emigration began in India, where there were about 10 million people. India began to provide military assistance to rebel detachments. In the end, this led to the new Indian-Pakistani war.

The main theater of hostilities was Bengal, where military fleets of both sides played a crucial role in conducting operations: after all, this Pakistani enclave could only be provided by the sea. Considering the overwhelming power of the Indian Navy - aircraft carrier, 2 cruisers, 17 destroyers and frigates, 4 submarines, whereas the cruiser, 7 destroyers and frigates and 4 submarines were listed in the Pakistani fleet and 4 submarines - the outcome of events was predetermined. The most important outcome of the war was the loss of Pakistan of his anklav: East Pakistan became an independent state of Bangladesh.

Decades that have passed after this war were rich in new conflicts. Particularly acute occurred in the late 2008 beginning of 2009, when the Indian city of Mumbai is attacked by the terrorists. At the same time, Pakistan refused to issue India's persons suspected of involvement in this action.

Today, India and Pakistan continue to balance on the verge of an open war, and the Indian authorities stated that the fourth Indo-Pakistani war should be the last.

Silence in front of the explosion?

The first vice-president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems Dr. Military Sciences Konstantin Sivkov in a conversation with the correspondent "SP" commented on the situation in the modern relations of India and Pakistan:

In my opinion, at the moment, Indo-Pakistani military conflict is at the bottom of the conditional sinusoid. The management of Pakistan today solves the difficult task of confronting pressure from Islamic fundamentalists who find support in the depths of Pakistani society. In this regard, the conflict with India went to the background.

But the confrontation of Islam and the Pakistani authorities is very characteristic of the current world defold. Pakistani power pro-American to the brain of bones. And the Islamists who fight against Americans in Afghanistan and strike them to their defaults in Pakistan, represent the other side - objectively, so to speak, anti-imperialist.

As for India, she is now not to Pakistan. She sees where the world rolls, and seriously occupied by re-equipment of his army. Including modern Russian military equipment, which, by the way, is almost nothing to say in our troops.

Against whom she is arming?

It is clear that the United States sooner or later can inspire the war with Pakistan. An old conflict is a favorable soil for this. In addition, the current NATO War in Afghanistan may affect the provocation of the next turn of the Indo-Pakistani military confrontation.

The fact is that during the time it goes, the United States put in Afghanistan (and therefore indirectly and Pakistani Taliban) a huge amount of land weapons, the return of which back to the United States is a cost-effective operation. This weapon is doomed to use, and it will shoot. Indian leadership understands this. And prepares for such a course of events. But the current re-equipment of the Indian army has, in my opinion, and a more global goal.

What are you speaking about?

I have repeatedly paid attention to the fact that the world with a catastrophic acceleration rushed to the beginning of the "hot" period of the Regular World War. This is due to the fact that the global economic crisis did not end, and it can be allowed only by building a new world order. And the case that the new world order is built bloodlessly, there was no more in the story. Events in North Africa and other countries are a prologue, the first sounds of the coming world war. At the head of the new redistribution of the world is Americans.

Today we are watching the almost fully formed military coalition of US Satellites (Europe plus Canada). But the confrontative coalition is still formed. In my opinion, it has two components. The first - BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). The second component is the countries of the Arab world. They are just beginning to realize the need to create a single defense space. But the processes go fast.

The Indian leadership is perhaps the most adequately reacts to the sinister changes in the world. It seems to me, soberly looks into a more or less distant future, when the formed anti-American coalition still will have to face the main enemy. In India there is a real army reform, not what we have.

Disappointing calculations

Somewhat other opinion of the employee of one of the departments of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Alexandra Shilova:

It is clear that nuclear containment on the part of India is primarily aimed against those states that it considers likely opponents. First of all, it is Pakistan, which, as well as India, takes measures to form strategic nuclear forces. But also the potential threat from China over the years has been one of the main factors that influenced India's military planning.

It is enough to recall that the Indian nuclear military program itself, the beginning of which dates back to the mid-60s, became mainly the answer to the emergence of nuclear weapons in the People's Republic of China (1964), especially since China in 1962 India's severe defeat in the border war . To curb Pakistan, India seems to be enough of several dozen charges. According to Indian specialists, the minimum in this case would be the potential that ensures the survival rate of 25-30 carriers with ammunition after the first sudden nuclear strike from Pakistan.

Given the size of the territory of India and the ability to significantly disperse the means of a nuclear attack, it can be assumed that the blow from Pakistan, even the most massive, will not be able to disable most of Indian Shenas. Indian response to the use of at least 15-20 nuclear charges will undoubtedly lead to irreparable damage up to the full collapse of the Pakistani economy, especially since the radius of Indian aviation and the developed daily ballistic missiles allows you to strive actually any object in Pakistan.

Therefore, if we mean only Pakistan, an arsenal of 70-80 ammunition can be apparently more than enough. Justice should be noted that the Indian economy will hardly be able to withstand a nuclear strike using at least 20-30 charges from the same Pakistan.

However, if you proceed simultaneously from the principle of application of unacceptable damage and non-use of nuclear weapons first, then in the case of China it will be necessary to place an arsenal, at least comparable to Chinese, and Beijing now has 410 charges, from them on intercontinental ballistic missiles not more than 40. It is clear That if you count on the first blow from China, then Beijing is able to deduce a very significant part of the nuclear attack of India. Thus, their total amount must be approximately comparable to the Chinese arsenal and reach a few hundred to ensure the necessary percentage of survival.

As for Pakistan, the leadership of this country constantly makes it clear that the threshold of the possible use of nuclear weapons in Islamabad can be quite low. At the same time (in contrast to India) Islamabad, apparently intends to proceed from the possibility of using its nuclear weapons first.

So, according to Pakistansky analyst, Lieutenant General S. Lodi, "In the event of a dangerous situation, when the Indian offensive with the use of ordinary funds will threaten to break through our defense, or will already be afraid of a breakthrough that cannot be eliminated by conventional measures at our disposal, The government will not have a different opportunity, except for the use of our nuclear weapons to stabilize the situation. "

In addition, according to a number of statements of Pakistanis, in order to countermeasure, nuclear fugas may be applied to the array of Indian land forces to minide them border with India zone.

While the world is concentrated on the tests of ballistic missiles in North Korea, another potential conflict causes more and more concerns. For July, during a shootout between Indian and Pakistani military personnel in Jammu and Kashmir, 11 people were killed and 18 were injured, and four thousand people were forced to leave their homes.

On Sunday, the former Minister of Information and Broadcasting India Warf, which the National Democratic Alliance puts forward to the post-president of the country, said that Pakistan should recall what the collision ended in 1971, when Pakistan was defeated during the third Indo-Pakistani war, And Bangladesh gained independence.

Former Defense Minister of India and Oppositionist Mulayam Singh Yaaav said last week that China uses Pakistan to attack the country and prepares for the attack on India Pakistani nuclear warheads.

Warheads and doctrines

In the spring of this year, The New York Times reported that India thinks about changes in the interpretation of his nuclear doctrine, which prohibits the use of nuclear weapons first. Earlier, India prescribed only a massive retaliatory strike, which assumed strikes around the cities of the enemy.

According to the newspaper, a new approach may imply a preventive limited nuclear strikes on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal for self-defense. While all this, rather speculation, since the conclusions are made on the basis of the analysis of the statements of Indian high-ranking persons without any documentary evidence.

But even such assumptions, firstly, can push Pakistan to an increase in their nuclear opportunities and run the chain reaction of the nuclear armament racing between the two countries, and secondly, can force Pakistan any escalation of the conflict to take a blow to the first.

Already a few days after the publication The New York Times Pakistan accused India in speeding up military nuclear program and prepare for the production of 2,600 warheads. In his June report, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) noted that for the year India added about 10 warheads to his arsenal and gradually expands the infrastructure for the development of its nuclear weapons.

Former Pakistani Brigadier General Feros Khan, a specialist in Pakistan's nuclear program, previously stated that Pakistan had up to 120 nuclear warheads.

© AP Photo / Anjum Naveed

© AP Photo / Anjum Naveed

Last week in Washington, this Pakistani expert also said that the plans of Islamabad on the use of nuclear weapons are based on the doctrine of the NATO of the Cold War, when the use of tactical nuclear strikes on the upcoming enemy forces was assumed. At this, however, the critics of Pakistan objected that Islamabad uses his nuclear status as a cover for maintaining a terrorist war in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir.

For India, the presence of Pakistani tactical nuclear weapons has become a problem. If Pakistan is applicable only to tactical nuclear weapons and only on the field of hostilities, then India, bombing in response, Pakistani cities will look in black light. Hence the talk of the change in the interpretations of the doctrine, when you need to have time to eliminate Pakistani arsenals before they are in force.

Another reason is the arrival of Trump to power in the United States. India believes that with the new American president, she had much more freedom in making decisions on the nuclear program. The US relationship with Pakistan during Trump also go downwards: Americans have ceased to consider Islamabad as a reliable ally in the fight against radicals in Afghanistan. India is, of course, encouraging.

Script that everyone is afraid

The growth of tension at Industane may lead to disastrous consequences. A trigger that will launch a chain of events, leading to a preventive nuclear strike from one side or another, can serve as an escalation in Jammu and Kashmir or a major terrorist attack in India like an attack in Mumbai in 2008.

The main problem, according to many analysts, is that no one knows what the criteria for the use of nuclear weapons to Pakistan and what exactly he can perceive as the beginning of the war from India. The second problem - terrorist attacks in India may not be associated with Pakistan at all, but it will be difficult to convince the Indian side.

In 2008, a US study was published on the consequences of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan. The authors concluded that although the total charges of the two countries and are not so great, their use will lead to a climate catastrophe, which will cause large agricultural problems and mass hunger. As a result, according to the report, for about one billion people will die within ten years. So it seems to be a distant problem of India and Pakistan actually concerns the whole world.